Politics Monday Number 1, Article 6: Israel’s insufficient resolve and America’s societal crisis are pushing both towards catastrophe

Finally, the sixth of six opinion pieces I have so far written for Ynet - here with full links!

Here, finally, is the sixth of the six opinion pieces I have already had published by Ynetnews - see it also on the paper’s website. As ever, enjoy the text with full links to the sources that I used!

Israel’s insufficient resolve and America’s societal crisis are pushing both towards catastrophe

Israel has now been fighting Hamas and other terrorists in Gaza for more than five months. This is a very long time compared to the country’s previous wars, against stronger enemies. The Sinai campaign of 1956 against Egypt lasted eight days. The Six-Day War of 1967, against a coalition of Egypt, Jordan and Syria, was even shorter. The bitter Yom Kippur War of 1973 to defeat simultaneous Egyptian and Syrian offensives, which cost Israel 2,689 lives, took only 19 days. The current war will soon have lasted more than five times longer than all of these three wars, put together. Yet, Israeli victory is neither imminent nor certain.

Israel has not resolved to gain decisive victory

The operations in Gaza are difficult because the terrorists hide in a dense urban area and have constructed a huge spider’s web of underground tunnels. Nonetheless, this is not the reason why the war continues. Rather, the essential problem is Israel’s lack of resolve. It is this which led to the creation and growth of Hamas in the first place, and it has lasted forty years.

In 1984, Israel arrested Ahmed Yassin, founder of the Islamic Organization in Gaza, for nothing less than possessing weapons and seeking to destroy Israel. In May 1985, Yassin was released in the infamous Jibril deal, in which Israel paid for the return of just three Israeli prisoners of war by releasing 1,150 terrorists. Slightly more than two years later, Yassin and others founded Hamas. This set the pattern for decades; of insufficient military pressure, obscene exchange agreements and the continuous strengthening of Israel’s mortal enemies in Gaza.

Winston Churchill derided a not dissimilar pattern of British behaviour in the face of growing Nazi aggression as follows in November 1936:

“So they go on in strange paradox, decided only to be undecided, resolved to be irresolute, adamant for drift, solid for fluidity, all powerful to be impotent.”

As with the collapse of the Allied armies in France in 1940, so with the attack on Israel on 7 October, the consequences, which should always have been obvious, have finally become indisputable. Yet, Israel persists in its resolve to be irresolute. Even though, as Ben-Dror Yemini rightly asserts, “it is not only Israel’s right to defeat Hamas. It is her duty.” It should be added that no country and no force other than Israel will perform this task.

America is not Israel’s saviour. Israel must save itself

Israel’s irresolution is anchored on a misunderstanding of the role of American assistance. It is not true, as Yemini claimed, that Israel has needed weapons “on a scale much larger than that of the Yom Kippur War”. A sober look at histories of the war, including Yitzhak Steigman’s recent and very thorough official history of the Israel Air Force in that war, “We Must Keep on Playing”, shows this is definitely untrue. The American air lift, Operation Nickel Grass, included the supply of dozens of combat aircraft, artillery pieces and other heavy equipment to Israel. During the present war, the IDF has definitely not received any aircraft from the U.S., and there is no reason to believe that it has received any artillery pieces.

It is necessary to see events in their proper proportion. In 1973, Israel was fighting two large Soviet-armed conventional armies which also received additional supplies, in the form of 935 sorties flown by Soviet transport aircraft during the course of the war. Now, Israel is fighting a terrorist infantry force. This would have been obliterated by now, if it was not hiding in its tunnels and if Israel had not contrived to keep the Philadelphia corridor on the Egyptian border open for the entire war thus far.

The way to victory is for the IDF to take physical possession of the entire territory of Gaza, just as the Allies in the Second World War took physical possession of the entire territory of the Axis powers. Only this method can and will permanently remove Hamas from power.

This is why Ron Ben-Yishai is wrong to emphasise that Hamas’ control of aid distribution in Rafah and Deir al-Balah keeps it in power in those towns. Such an approach puts the cart in front of the horse. Hamas controls the flow of aid because it retains the armed force needed to do so, not the other way round. Until and unless the IDF storms these areas, nothing can or will change.

Israel needs not to compete for “valuable legitimacy points”, as Ben-Yishai proposes, but rather to obliterate Hamas, and present international public opinion with a fait accompli, thereby drawing a line under attempts to pressure Israel to end the war before victory. Neither in 1956, nor in 1967, nor in 1973 did Israel carefully monitor international criticism while fighting. It defeated its enemies on the battlefield, as rapidly as possible.

For the moment, Israel is fighting a larger and longer version of the Second Lebanon War of 2006. Then, a month of incoherent and indecisive Israeli operations in southern Lebanon finally exhausted the patience of the reliably pro-Israel President George W. Bush, who called for a “cessation of violence”. Anyone who would like to see where that has led can visit Israel’s northern border for a definitive demonstration. If IDF operations continue to be as slow as they are at present, far worse will follow.

The nature of Hamas leaves Israel no alternative

Attempts to find an alternative to decisive Israeli victory cannot lead anywhere. Yemini’s suggestion that Israel “declare a unilateral cease-fire on our terms” ignores the fact that Hamas will use any cease-fire to re-arm, recuperate and better hide the hostages that it holds. A jihadist organisation formally dedicated to Israel’s destruction will not act in any other manner. This means that apart from some sort of temporary pause for the purpose of a limited prisoner exchange, a cease-fire is a road to nowhere.

As long as Hamas has sufficient men and weapons, it will continue to dominate the population of Gaza. Therefore, Avi Issacharoff hopes that Yahya Sinwar will be threatened by calls for accountability from the populace are in vain. Sinwar is a vicious murderer who forced a supposed traitor to bury his own brother alive. For as long as he has enough guns and enough acolytes willing to use them, Sinwar and any of his successors will adhere to the same methods and hold Gaza by the throat.

Equally purposeless is Issacharoff’s suggestion that Fatah will inevitably come back to Gaza in some form. The author himself acknowledges that Fatah is not even capable of exercising control in Tulkarem and Jenin in the West Bank, to speak nothing of Gaza. When Fatah did attempt to rule Gaza, this ended in 2007, with its members massacred and thrown off buildings.

It is impossible to tolerate a return of Fatah to Gaza not only because of its weakness, but also because of its racism. Just a few days ago, Fatah’s Prime Minister, Mohammad Shtayyeh, libelled Israel as a country that “deprives the Palestinian people of their right to life through killings and the committing of genocide”. Replacing one racist anti-Israel gang, Hamas, with another, Fatah, would constitute neither reasonable nor responsible policy.

The American crisis reflected in the State of Biden address

The slide towards irresolution and irresponsibility blights not only Israel, but also the United States. As NBC’s Peter Nicholas acknowledged, the core theme of President Joe Biden’s State of the Union’s address was that “the American president is fit.” Thus, the address was in essence intended to buttress the State of Biden, and was not particularly closely connected to the Union that he is meant to lead.

Even as Biden’s physical fitness is held to have been demonstrated by his performance, his moral fitness is no better than it was. Rick Klein’s friendly analysis of the address for ABC could not avoid the fact that Biden “referred to his predecessor at least 16 times, although not by name”. This constitutes a most unpleasant parallel with Putin, who refused to ever name his now-dead and presumably murdered political opponent, Alexei Navalny. Biden is not a murderous dictator, but he is not behaving in a manner befitting of a democratic leader.

Biden’s behaviour is not accidental, but rather forms a central part of America’s societal crisis. Comity and unity are long gone. As Tal Axelrod put it, Biden had been “leaving behind a hallmark of bipartisanship” which the ABC correspondent suggested had been part of the politician’s past reputation. In fact, Biden has not had a positive net approval rating, and hence any sort of bipartisan support, since August 2021. His current net approval rating is around -17%, a woeful result for a man seeking re-election.

Instead of bipartisanship, America is displaying an abiding disgust with its two dominant political figures. Donald Trump has, incredibly, never had a positive net approval rating, occasional outlier polling results being excepted. Unless Trump is taken out of contention by court proceedings or health problems, the election of 2024 will be a contest between two of the most unpopular politicians in American history. Making the situation even worse is the fact that Kamala Harris, Biden’s Vice President, has attained the difficult distinction of being even less popular than either Biden or Trump.

Such leaders, bereft of enduring popular support, will not be able to sustain America’s previous success. It is questionable whether they will even be able to pass through the post-election period without mass disturbances initiated by whichever side loses the election. In such unpleasant circumstances, it is particularly important that Israel win the war before November. The four years that will follow may be some of the worst in America’s long history, and especially because of this, Israel must not drag out the war beyond this autumn.